35. "Everyone" keeps saying: "Oh, my gosh -- PRINTED BOOKS ARE DEAD!" -- "Oh, give me a break!", says NYT Techie

David Pogue:
Cycle of New 

Consumer
Technology

is

"Off the Tracks!"

PBS NEWSHOUR 

AIR DATE:

December 9, 2010

Transcript

MARGARET WARNER:

Finally tonight:

covering

the
Tech Beat,

helping
Consumers

know

what's hot

and

what's not.

Jeffrey Brown

has our conversation.

JEFFREY BROWN:

'Tis the season,

once again,

for the latest

Tech Gadgets

to be

bought and sold,

sometimes

with

breathless hype

over

their ability

to

"change your life"

and

"rock your world".

It can be
overwhelming
to
"keep track",
"keep up",
and
decide
if you
really need
that
NEW Camera,
"Laptop" (computer),
TV
or
"Smartphone".

But
David Pogue
has been
doing just that
for
10 years now
as Tech Columnist
for
the New York Times.

And he
joins us now.

Welcome
to you!

DAVID POGUE,
Personal
Technology
Correspondent,
The
New York Times:

Thank
you!

JEFFREY BROWN:

So,
once again,
here we are
in
"the blitz"
of
the Season,
and
everything's
kind of
"thrown"
at us.

Broadly
speaking,
where's
"the action"
right now?

What
interests
you?

DAVID POGUE:

I would say

all of
"the action"

these days

is

App Phones,

which
I'm calling

the

"iPhone"

and

"Android"

and
the other

"Touch Screen"
Phones --

not

"Smart Phones",

which are

just like

"Phones

with E-Mail",

like

"BlackBerry",

but

"App Phones"

you can

install
your own

Programs.

In
my Column,
I can't
remember
the last time
I wrote about
a "P.C."
[a personal
computer].

You know -- 
like --
the Reagan
administration?!

(LAUGHTER)

DAVID POGUE:

But --

so -- it's
all about

"App Phones".

I think
there's

a lot of "buzz"

about

"E-Book Readers"

this year.

JEFFREY BROWN:

Right.

DAVID POGUE:

There's
color ones

for
the first time

and
cheap ones

for
the first time.

And then,

the rest
of
the holidays

will be
"the usual".

It will be

"GPS Units"

[Global
Positioning

System] 

and

Cameras

and

Camcorders

and

so on.

JEFFREY BROWN:

How 'bout

the
TV

as your --

the

"TV-Computer

Connection"?

DAVID POGUE:

Yes,
the TV --

putting

the Web

on

your TV,

they
seem to

keep
coming back

to this

every
five years.

This
is something
I think
"the Industry"
wants
more
than
"the Consumer"
wants.

I
do not know
a single person
in
my life
who uses
the Web
on
their television set.

I know
they exist.

Don't write me
the
Hate Mail!

I know
you're
"out there",
you Nerds!

(LAUGHTER)

DAVID POGUE:

But

in general,

the...

JEFFREY BROWN:

You think

people

want to keep

these things

separate,

that,

sort of...

DAVID POGUE:

Well, yes.

When
you

watch TV,

you want to

turn off

your Brain

and

sit back

and

"Be Entertained".

When you

use
a Computer,

when you

use
"the Web",

you're

driving

"the show",

and

you're
in that

"Active Position".

So,
I think
there's
two different
"Mental States".

JEFFREY BROWN:

Now,

in
this Column

you wrote --

looking back

at

10 years --

which is

quite interesting

to think --

Big Things --

about

how
people relate

to Technology --

one thing
you said

was --

that
you have

learned --

is that

"Things

don't necessarily

replace

other things,"

that is,

they kind of

splinter

or

somehow
CO-EXIST.

But,
at
the same time,
you
also wrote
about
how
most
of the things
you have
written about
don't exist
anymore!

DAVID POGUE:

Well,

most of the

"individual"
products...

JEFFREY BROWN:

Right.

DAVID POGUE:

I mean,

if you
look at

the thousands

I have reviewed

over the years,

"individual" products

that

were

released

with

millions of dollars

of marketing

are
just

not there
anymore.

But that
doesn't mean
there
aren't still
Cameras
and
still
Music Players
and
so on.

Yes,
I mean,
the thing
I'm used to
is,
people say,
"Oh,
this new product
is
the "iPhone-killer'!"

JEFFREY BROWN:

Right.

DAVID POGUE:

"This is

going to be

the

'iPod-killer'!"

And
it never
happens!

I mean,
Television
was
supposed
to
"kill"
Radio.

Everyone
thought
it would!

The DVD
was
supposed to
"kill" going out
to
the Theater.

None
of that
ever
happened!

JEFFREY BROWN:

Somehow,

they

"co-exist".

DAVID POGUE:

Things

just

"splinter".

They

just

"add on".

I mean,
there
are
certain exceptions --
the
"Eight-Track
Tape" --
of course!

But,
in general,
New Technologies
just
sort of
"pile on".

Everyone
keeps
saying:
"Oh,
my gosh!

Printed
books
are
Dead!"

Oh,
give me
a break!

"Printed
BOOKS
are
Dead?!"

No!

They're
just --
the
"E-Book Readers" --
will
just
"add on".

(LAUGHTER)

JEFFREY BROWN:

Well,

another thing

that
you write

is that:

"It's

not that hard

to tell

the Winners

from

the Losers!"

Now,
this
will interest
a lot of people,
because --
here you are --
you
have to
review
all
of these things,
right?

So,
you take
all this
in,
and
it's not --
it's really
not
that hard
to know
what's
going to win
and
what's
going to lose?

DAVID POGUE:

In
most cases,

it's really

not
that hard.

I remember
reviewing
an
"E-Book Reader"
that was
just terrible!

And
until I had
time
for it,
I gave it
to
my 9-year-old
daughter.

And
she
came to me
at dinnertime,
tossed it
back,
and
aid,
"Dad,
it's horrible!"

She's 9!

JEFFREY BROWN:

The

"9-Year-Old Test" --

right? --

every time?

DAVID POGUE:

And

she

was right!

That's right!

(LAUGHTER)

DAVID POGUE:

So,
yes,

I look back

at the things

that

I have given

really "nasty"

reviews to.

And you

don't
wonder,

"Will this

succeed

in the Market?"

What
you
wonder is:
"How
on earth
did this
ever
get
out of the company
alive?

Was there
nobody
who
ever tried
turning it on?

They
would have
known
it!

So,
it has to be
an
"Emperor's
New Clothes"
situation.

JEFFREY BROWN:

Is

your sense

that

we want

Technology

to make

our lives

"Easier",

or

"More Interesting",

even if

it also

complicates

our lives?

What --
what --
how does it
strike you
and
the people
that
you're
hearing from
all the time?

DAVID POGUE:

Well,

there's

a lot --

a lot

to:

"why

people

buy gadgets".

So,

I'm

not even sure

if people

think,

"Will it

make my life

Easier,

or

more Complicated?

I think
they're
thinking
"Style".

What
"statement"
does
this
make
about
ME?

One thing
I have learned
these
10 years
is that
people associate
so heavily
with
their Gadgets
that,
if you
insult
the Gadget,
you
get "Hate Mail"
as though
you
insulted them!

JEFFREY BROWN:

It's

very "Personal",

right?

DAVID POGUE:

You

wouldn't believe!

And --

and

the same thing

in reverse!

I will

praise

some Camera

or something,

and
I will get

all this E-Mail

saying:

"I love you!

You're

so great,

the way

you

like

this Camera!"

I'm
like,
"Why?!!"

"Because
I
bought one!"

So...

JEFFREY BROWN:

It really goes

to

their
"self-image",

"their
sense

of

who

they are"?

DAVID POGUE:

It is,

because

they're

making

"a risk"

by

buying it.

They're
paying

and
hoping

that

it's
the
Right One!

So,

there's

some kind

of

Psychology

going on there,

that

they get
"invested"

in
its
"goodness".

JEFFREY BROWN:

And,

of course,

"The Marketers"

know that?

DAVID POGUE:

Oh,
yes,

"Apple"
(computer
supplier),
especially.

Wow!

JEFFREY BROWN:

And

this notion

we

were
talking about

earlier,

the
"Passive"

vs.
the
"Active"

or

"Interactive",

now --

you were

talking

about

the Television

and

the Computer

and

how we

approach
these things.

But
I wonder,
is that
changing at all,
when you
look at
"Touch Technology"
or
the new --
the "X-Box Kinect",
right?

I mean,
you think
about
the way
we
"Interact".

So,
it's sort of
"Passive",
but
not quite
as --
I don't know
if I'm
saying
it right --
but
I just
wonder
if
our Thinking
about
these --
our
Approach
to them,
our
Connection
to them  --
is changing
at all?

DAVID POGUE:

Well,

funny

you should mention

"Touch Screens"

and

"Touch-less Manipulation" --

this Microsoft

"Kinect"

thing!

JEFFREY BROWN:

Yes,

you
explain

what
that...

DAVID POGUE:

So,

it attaches

to

your "X-Box",

and

it lets you

play
Games

without

a plastic
"Controller"

in your hand.

So,

if you
want to

play
Tennis,

you just
mimic

holding
a Paddle,

and
you go
like this

[he makes

an arm motion],

and

it reads

where
your arm is.

It's amazing!

JEFFREY BROWN:

Right,

no "Remote"
(Remote
Control Device) --

no "Instrument"

at all!

You
are

the Mover!

DAVID POGUE:

That's right!

You

are

the
"Remote"!

[The

Remotely

Controlled

device]

That's

their slogan!

JEFFREY BROWN:

Yes.

DAVID POGUE:

But

what's
hilarious

is -- again --

the thing

I've enjoyed most

about

these 10 years --

is

learning about

Human Nature

more than

"Tech".

And

"Human Nature"

is

to say --

it's
"to make

Technological
leaps

that

aren't justified".

And
what
I hear
about
the
"Kinect"
is:
"Oh,
My Gosh! --
in
five years,
THIS
is how
we will interact
with
our computers!"

What -- ??!!
-- by
swinging
a
Tennis Racket!?

What
are you
talking about?

No,
you're
going
to
have
to be able
to
TYPE!

You're
going to
have
to be able
to
move
the "Mouse"!

People
said
already
that
"Touch Screens"
would be
the
"Next Big Thing".

When
the "iPhone"
came out,
they were
like:
"Oh!

Put
that
on
a Computer!

That's
the
future!

Can
you
imagine?

I tried it.

They
came out
with
"Touch Screen"
Laptops
[Laptop
Computers].

So,
here's
the
Keyboard.

Here's
the
Screen.

You're
typing
HERE
and
you're
"dragging
the Mouse"
like this.

Oh,
My Gosh!

You
will be
seeing
a Chiropractor
in
one day!

It's
a horrible
experience!

And,
meanwhile,
the
buttons
and
controls
are
too small,
so
it's
very "fussy"!

No --
sorry!

"Touch
Computing" --
the
"Mouse
and
Keyboard" --
are
not
going
away --
"on my Reputation
on Television":
you're
hearing it
here
first!

JEFFREY BROWN:

All right,

last thing.

How can
anyone --
and --
you wrote
about this --
so --
how can
anyone
keep up
with
all this?

So,
what
was
kind of
reassuring
in
your
article
was --
your
"10-Year
Review" --
was:
even
you
have
a hard time
"keeping up" --
right?

DAVID POGUE:

Right!

The

answer

is:

you

can't keep up,

and

I

can't keep up!

I read

all

the

magazines!

I go to

all

the

trade shows, --

I listen

to

all the P.R.

[Public Relations]

pitches.

I do

two columns

every

single week.

And,

sometimes,

they're

columns

that involve

"roundups"

of

16 cameras

(or

whatever).

-- It's
still
impossible!

I mean,
you
would need
a
Full-Time Staff,
and
you would
still
miss stuff!

Somehow,
we
have gotten
into
this "cycle"
now,
where
Technology
advances
so fast,
and
comes out
so quickly
and
becomes obsolete
so quickly --
IT'S
OUT
OF CONTROL! 

It's
OFF
THE TRACKS!

So,
what...

JEFFREY BROWN:

What's

a person

to do?

DAVID POGUE:

So,

what

a person

should do

is:

Number One:

Learn

when

your product

is

going to be

OBSOLETE.

So,

don't

buy

an

"iPhone"

in

June,

because,

every July,

there's

going to be

a NEW one!

Don't

buy

your "iPod"

in

August,

because

the New Ones

come out

every September!

Cameras
come out
in
February
and October.

So,
"learn
the cycle" --
Number One!

And
Number Two
is:
when
you
buy it,
know
UP FRONT --
"OK --
I'm
saying
'Goodbye!'
to
this Money,
and
I'm going
to enjoy
this
Camera
for
six months! "

It's
still
going to
serve me
well
after,
but
I
will
no longer
be on
"the cutting edge"
after
six months!

(LAUGHTER)

DAVID POGUE:

And

if you

resign yourself

to that

"up front",

you will

live

a

much

happier life!

JEFFREY BROWN:

All right,

"Tech News

You

Can Use!"

and

"live by"!

(LAUGHTER)

JEFFREY BROWN:

David Pogue

of

The New York Times --

thanks

very much!

DAVID POGUE:

My

pleasure!

+++

 

[Found online at: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/science/july-dec10/holidaygadgets_12-09.html ]